Will Howie Lempel (CEO at 80,000 Hours) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
One-OffCrime & Justice3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.9%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 22, 23, 2:52 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Geoff Anders (Director at Leverage Research) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Richard Hanania (political writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman be charged with a felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Justin Sun (founder of Tron) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketMaduro Prison Time?
PolymarketRules
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Howie Lempel (CEO at 80,000 Hours) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Part of a large question series.
- Question is global -- charges in any country count.
- Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
- Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
