Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 51%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 22, 25, 1:14 PM UTCDec 31, 00, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if the United States of America (founded 1776) ceases to exist before the Harvard University (founded 1636).
- Resolves NO if Harvard ceases to exist before the United States.
- I will try to use my best judgment to determine when either ceases to exist.
- If both cease to exist at the same time, resolves 50/50.
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Harvard outlive the United States??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Harvard outlive the United States? resolve?
- Will Harvard outlive the United States? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2500.
- How is Will Harvard outlive the United States? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the United States of America (founded 1776) ceases to exist before the Harvard University (founded 1636).