Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (94.2%)
Resolved: Oct 20, 2026, 1:08 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Yes94.2%
No5.799999999999997%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
Same resolution conditions as the GPT-4 version: https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-gpt4-get-the-monty-fall-proble?referrer=MatthewBarnett