In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
EntertainmentAIOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78%
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372
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 13 minutes ago
Jan 28, 24, 4:34 AM UTCJan 2, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best.
- So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality.
- That's the yardstick that I will be using.
- Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex.
- It doesn't need to have the "so bad it's good" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography.
- It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? resolve?
- In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best.