Will GPT-5 be capable of achieving superhuman performance in at least one exam that is typically taken by humans?
AIOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 90.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 23, 5:14 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 2:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolved to YES if there is at least one exam that humans typically take, where GPT-5 or an equivalent flagship model from OpenAI displays superhuman performance.
- The exact name 'GPT-5' is not necessary.
- Edit: To be ‘superhuman’, a GPT-5 or equivalent model has to score higher than the best humans on the same task.
- If they tie, it only counts if both have a perfect score.
