Current community forecast
No 58.6%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 7, 26, 10:09 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsWill the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if among frontier AI models released in 2027, a majority used FP8 as their primary pretraining precision.
- Frontier models = flagship from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, xAI, Mistral.
- FP8 means majority of compute in FP8 not BF16/FP16/FP32.
- Mixed precision where FP8 dominates counts.
- Post-training quantization does NOT count.
- Based on official reports or credible reporting.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? resolve?
- Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if among frontier AI models released in 2027, a majority used FP8 as their primary pretraining precision.