Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
One-OffAI4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:40 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 79.9%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 25, 8:45 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax
- This is obviously a very ambiguous and subjective question, I'd rather have an imperfect market than none
- Close date extends indefinitely until the answer to this is clear.
- "Central" is a high bar.
- Example: Inventing a better interpretability tool or a better method of reinforcement learning isn't enough to resolve this market YES, even if they're genuinely better than the alternatives and everyone adopts them.
- The most central YES resolution is is if their "organic alignment" works and is adopted by everyone, but it being a part of a future widely adopted alignment solution, or being widely accepted by AI safety as an important alignment innovation but not used, would work too.