Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
One-OffAI4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 25, 8:45 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
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Related Markets
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KalshiRules
https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax
- This is obviously a very ambiguous and subjective question, I'd rather have an imperfect market than none
- Close date extends indefinitely until the answer to this is clear.
- "Central" is a high bar.
- Example: Inventing a better interpretability tool or a better method of reinforcement learning isn't enough to resolve this market YES, even if they're genuinely better than the alternatives and everyone adopts them.
- The most central YES resolution is is if their "organic alignment" works and is adopted by everyone, but it being a part of a future widely adopted alignment solution, or being widely accepted by AI safety as an important alignment innovation but not used, would work too.
Open markets
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? resolve?
- Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax