Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?
Corporate ActionsAIOne-OffSpaceBusiness & CorporateTech8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 74%
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72
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 2, 24, 8:16 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Background reading:
- xAI, founded by Elon Musk in March 2023, is an American startup company focused on artificial intelligence (AI).
- Its stated goal is “to understand the true nature of the universe”.
- One of its immediate objectives is to create an AI that is way capable of advanced mathematical reasoning, something not found in current models.
- On November 4, 2023, xAI unveiled Grok, an AI chatbot that is integrated with X. xAI has indicated that the bot will only be available to X's Premium+ subscribers when it is out of beta.
- Here are some key points about xAI:
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $66.1K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213K
- 24h Vol
- $45.2K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027+4.0pt54%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-4.5pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- 1.5T++12.3pt77.7%
- 1.25T–1.5T-4.0pt7.8%
- 1T–1.25T-1.4pt5.8%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+6.0pt98%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+3.0pt98%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 74% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2035.
- How is Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Background reading: