Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.9%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJan 20, 26, 9:19 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk buy a major sports team before 2027?
KalshiWill Elon Musk buy a significant share (>5%) of the New York Times in the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be worth $2.0t or more before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the first uncrewed Starship to Mars launch within 2 years as Elon Musk says?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon purchase Ryanair?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Whether Elon Musk will acquire Ryanair by 31 December 2027 (23:59 UTC)?
- The outcome resolves to YES if a definitive agreement is publicly announced and legally executed in which Elon Musk (personally or via an entity he controls) acquires a controlling stake (≥50% voting rights) in Ryanair before the resolution date.
- The outcome resolves to NO if no such acquisition occurs by the deadline.
- Rumors, negotiations, minority investments, partnerships, or non-binding offers do not count as a YES.
- Resolution is based on credible public disclosures, regulatory filings, or official statements from the parties involved.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $98.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.9K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.1pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+49.5pt99%
- No-49.5pt1%
- Total Vol
- $24.7K
- 24h Vol
- $23.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair by the end of 2027? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair by the end of 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair by the end of 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Whether Elon Musk will acquire Ryanair by 31 December 2027 (23:59 UTC)?