Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 83.8%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 12, 23, 3:14 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
Manifold MarketsChamath prediction: Will David Sacks run for governor of California by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Richard Hanania (political writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSPLC found guilty in 2026?
PolymarketWill Midjourney be found liable for copyright infringement in the Disney/Comcast lawsuit in 2026?
FutuurTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketRules
Anything highly credible, such as findings of fraud with SBF.
- Doesn't need to be legally charged, but that's a bonus.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+16.0pt72.3%
- Yes-16.0pt27.7%
- Total Vol
- $409.9K
- 24h Vol
- $10.3K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $7.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt28%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-1.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $580.3K
- 24h Vol
- $5K
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.0pt42.6%
- 60++2.0pt38.6%
- 20–40+2.1pt10.9%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-8.0pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 84% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030? resolve?
- Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Anything highly credible, such as findings of fraud with SBF.