Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes, by 2100 62.1%
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 26, 12:27 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Chatgpt-type chatbots become permanent in our lives permanently before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Chatgpt-type chatbots become extinct before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill AI chatbots become permanent part of daily life permanently like smartphones and the internet before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Generative AI become permanent part of our daily lives before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Daylight Saving Time become permanent?
KalshiWill Daylight Savings Time become permanent in the US in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2100, a major, reputable public polling or research organization (e.g., Pew Research Center, Gallup, or a comparable national statistical/census agency) publishes a survey indicating that 50% or more of surveyed adults in the United States (or a globally representative sample) use generative AI chatbots or LLM-based conversational assistants (e.g., ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, or their direct technological successors) on a daily basis (or "almost every day").
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO on January 1, 2100.
- Resolution Notes:
- If the specified polling organizations (Pew, Gallup) cease to exist before the threshold is met, comparable academic studies from major research institutions (e.g., MIT, Stanford) or official government census data will be used.
- If no definitive public polling data is available in the final years leading up to 2100, the market may be resolved using the best available historical data and a consensus poll of platform users at that time.