Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.8%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 13, 26, 12:47 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that Canada–EU annual two-way merchandise trade exceeds C$270 billion in nominal Canadian dollars before January 1st 2040. “Two-way merchandise trade” means the sum of Canadian merchandise exports to the European Union and Canadian merchandise imports from the European Union over a calendar year.
- The EU should be treated using the EU-27 / ex-UK definition in force as of market creation, so later EU accessions or withdrawals do not mechanically change the geographic scope of the market.
- Resolution should primarily use Statistics Canada data, with official EU/Eurostat data or other authoritative government sources usable as corroborating evidence.
- Minor subsequent statistical revisions do not affect resolution once the criterion has clearly been met.
- If no calendar year ending before January 1st 2040 records more than C$270 billion in qualifying trade, the market resolves NO..
