Current community forecast
Yes 52%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleOct 3, 23, 2:17 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Will autonomous or self-driving rideshares exceed that of human-driven rideshares (like Uber or Lyft) by Jan 1st, 2030 in the United States?
- I will evaluate this by examining metrics such as total mileage, total revenue from rides, and number of rides driven.
- It's possible that due to the changing modality of rideshares, some of these metrics may make more or less sense than others and want to leave this option open to resolve the market in the spirit of the question.
- I will consult subject matter experts if necessary.
- Hopefully this will be fairly easy or obvious to resolve, but if it's actually way too close to call, or due to a number of metrics diverging, I reserve the right to resolve at 50%.
- I will not bet in this market due to the somewhat subjective resolution criteria.