Current community forecast
No 90.7%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 10:25 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Are Recursive Language Models the "Next Frontier" of AI in 2026 according to Manifold users?
Manifold MarketsEnd of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Large Language Models be able to match up all queries of my real name matched up with all my online handles by 2026
Manifold MarketsWill "Why Do Some Language Models Fake Alignment Wh..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Auditing language models for hidden objectives is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.