Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 72%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Nov 3, 26, 6:59 AM UTCNov 9, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
GPT Astra 6.1+ Released By End of November 2026?
Manifold MarketsGPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
PolymarketGPT Astra 6.1+ released on?
PolymarketWhen will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released?
PolymarketGPT Astra 6.1+ Released By EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Astra 6.1+ be released before Fable 5.5+?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if OpenAI first makes an officially named Astra model version 6.1 or higher publicly usable during the week of Monday, November 2 through Sunday, November 8, 2026, America/Los_Angeles time.
- The window begins November 2 at 00:00 PST and ends November 8 at 23:59:59 PST (November 9 at 07:59:59 UTC; 08:00 UTC exclusive).
- Trading closes at 23:59 PST, one minute before the window ends.
- - Astra 6.1, 6.2, 7, or a later major/minor version in the officially named Astra line qualifies.
- Existing GPT-6 Astra, 6.0.x patches, silent updates, dated snapshots, new speed modes and aliases of an unchanged version do not.
- - Actual availability through an official OpenAI API or product to ordinary customers counts.
