Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.1%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 1, 26, 3:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Argentina Monthly Inflation - September
PolymarketDrop in Mexico’s S&P long-term credit rating in 2026?
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KalshiSeptember Inflation US - Monthly
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if Argentina's National Statistics and Census Institute (INDEC) reports a monthly variation in the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 1.0% for any month from August through December 2026.
- The market resolves NO if no such monthly CPI reading is reported during that period.
- The resolution source will be the official CPI data published by INDEC.
- The relevant figure is the monthly percentage change in the National CPI, not year-over-year inflation.
- A reported value of exactly 1.0% does not qualify; the reported monthly inflation rate must be strictly below 1.0%.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $148.5M
- 24h Vol
- $7.6M
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes+1.0pt89%
- No-1.0pt11%
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- 24h Vol
- $74.5K
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt84%
- September Meeting+1.0pt80%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHISeptember 2026 CPI MoM Combo · Headline & Core
- Headline: 0.5% or above, Core: Exactly 0.2%18%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.3% or above6%
- Headline: Exactly 0.4%, Core: 0.1% or below5%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.5K
- 24h Vol
- $33.5K
POLYMARKETSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
- >5.0%+10.3pt28.9%
- 4.7-5.0%+11.8pt25%
- 4.4-4.7%+2.8pt23.1%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIInflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.2%+11.0pt99%
- Above 3.0%97%
- Above 3.3%96%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $46.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI in September
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 14, 2026.
- When does Will Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026? resolve?
- Will Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Argentina's monthly inflation drop below 1% in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if Argentina's National Statistics and Census Institute (INDEC) reports a monthly variation in the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 1.0% for any month from August through December 2026.