Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo, not before 2026 midterms 95.9%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 20, 25, 8:34 AM UTCDec 20, 26, 8:19 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Rep. Thomas Massie has suggested that those involved in the unwarranted redaction of the Epstein Files are guilty of Obstruction of Justice under 18 U.S.C. § 1519.
- On its face, it seems like a strong argument (assuming that in fact not all the redactions fell under the narrow exceptions allowed by the Epstein Files Transparency Act.) The same logic would appear to apply to the failure to release the majority of the files by the legally-mandated deadline.
- But will anyone actually face any official penalty for any of this?
Open markets
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+2.5pt65%
- Yes-2.5pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $31.8K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $578.1K
- 24h Vol
- $16K
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+3.0pt84.2%
- No-3.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $785.6K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 307%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No86%
- Yes-3.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $670.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will anyone be punished for failure to fully release the Epstein files??
- Manifold Markets prices No, not before 2026 midterms at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will anyone be punished for failure to fully release the Epstein files? resolve?
- Will anyone be punished for failure to fully release the Epstein files? is scheduled to resolve on December 20, 2026.
- How is Will anyone be punished for failure to fully release the Epstein files? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Rep. Thomas Massie has suggested that those involved in the unwarranted redaction of the Epstein Files are guilty of Obstruction of Justice under 18 U.S.C. § 1519.