Current community forecast
Yes 76.5%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 57 minutes ago
LaggingNov 24, 25, 8:50 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if any of the next four Starliner flights carry crew.
- The market resolves NO if all four flights are uncrewed.
- Resolution will be determined by official NASA or Boeing announcements regarding crew assignments for each flight.
- The market resolves NO if Starliner is cancelled without flying four more times.
- The next Starliner flight is scheduled for no earlier than April 2026 as a cargo mission, pending additional tests and certification.
