Current community forecast
Yes 90%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Oct 14, 26, 8:33 AM UTCDec 29, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsWill we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship successfully land for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on the moon again before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the Falcon 9 Family of rockets launch more times in 2026 than in 2025?
Manifold MarketsRules
Description / Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves based on whether Starship successfully deploys the payload or payload simulator explicitly scheduled for deployment during SpaceX's Starship Flight 15 mission.
- (obviously Starlink satellites)
- YES if SpaceX confirms that the planned payload has been successfully released from Starship during Flight 15, and the release is supported by official mission footage or an official mission update.
- NO if the planned payload is not released, or not relaeasd completely , the deployment attempt fails, the payload remains attached to Starship, or SpaceX confirms that the planned deployment did not occur.
- A payload merely being carried into space, reaching orbit, or being visible inside Starship does not count as successful deployment.
