Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 81.3% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes? resolve?

Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 9999.

How is Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a civilization descendant to our current (2024 human) civilization launches Von Neumann probes that successfully replicate in at least one star system other than the sol system before Von Neumann probes created by a civilization not descendant to ours are detected.

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+3.0pt56%
• Google-2.5pt34%
• OpenAI+0.2pt6%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.2M

24h Vol

$178.5K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.6pt59.2%
• Gemini-2.1pt30.1%
• ChatGPT+0.3pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+5.6pt92.9%
• Anthropic-1.4pt7.1%
• Alibaba+0.1pt0%

+18 more outcomes

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202796.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt95%
• Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt94.5%

POLYMARKET

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?

• December 31-6.5pt80%
• December 15-0.5pt75%
• November 3056%

+5 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-1.0pt94%
• December 15,-2.0pt92%
• November 30,-4.0pt89%

+15 more outcomes

• Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• Best AI in Oct 2026?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Best AI this week
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
• Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
• Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?