Current community forecast
2029-01-01 56%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJun 19, 26, 4:56 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
KalshiSpaceX to spin off Starlink in 2026?
FutuurStarlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026
KalshiRules
Anything that requires a fairing or bay doors or similar, rather than the Pez Dispenser.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink??
- Manifold Markets prices 2029-01-01 at 56% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink? resolve?
- By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2028.
- How is By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Anything that requires a fairing or bay doors or similar, rather than the Pez Dispenser.