Current community forecast
2026 Jul-Dec 86.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 19, 25, 10:06 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit?
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PolymarketRules
At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.
- This question will resolve when Starship successfully deploys 1+ satellites (eg, Starlink) to orbit AND this has already happened once before.
- Motive: This launch should correlate with the end of Starship testing & the start of a useful decrease in price to LEO.
- Clarifications:
- Starship doing orbital fuel transfer would not count
- The satellites must stay on their intended trajectories for at least 24 hours after deployment