Current community forecast
2026 Jul-Dec 53.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 19, 25, 10:06 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
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KalshiRules
At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.
- This question will resolve when Starship successfully deploys 1+ satellites (eg, Starlink) to orbit AND this has already happened once before.
- Motive: This launch should correlate with the end of Starship testing & the start of a useful decrease in price to LEO.
- Clarifications:
- Starship doing orbital fuel transfer would not count
- The satellites must stay on their intended trajectories for at least 24 hours after deployment
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
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- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time??
- Manifold Markets prices 2026 Jul-Dec at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time? resolve?
- When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is When will Starship deploy satellites for the 2nd time? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At time of writing (2025 March), Starship is still a prototype rocket & has not deployed anything to orbit yet.