Current community forecast
By end of December 2028 87.1%Leader of 11 outcomes
Forecasters
48
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 11, 24, 8:27 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
0%
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0%
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Starship first deploy a Starlink satellite to orbit?
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KalshiRules
Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit
- Otherwise answers will resolve NO as their dates are reached (or may resolve NO early if sufficiently certain)
- *A commercial payload is any satellite deployed from Starship that was paid for by an entity other than SpaceX - hence Starlink missions and other internal payloads do not count, and nor do payloads that remain within Starship (or Starship itself in cases like the Artemis HLS missions)
- Resolves based on the time of deployment, not the time of launch
- Additional clarifications:
- Payloads designed by SpaceX can count, provided the payload was paid for by an external entity.
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit??
- Manifold Markets prices By end of December 2028 at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? resolve?
- When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is When will Starship first deploy a commercial* satellite to orbit? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Answers resolve YES once SpaceX confirms that a commercial payload* (that had been launched on a Starship) has been successfully deployed to orbit