Current community forecast
Yes 50.6%
Forecasters
473
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 23, 24, 7:19 PM UTCJan 2, 45, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Barack Obama be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
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Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
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KalshiWill a human walk on the moon again before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRules
Open until either event happens
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
- Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
