Current community forecast
Yes 50.3%
Forecasters
472
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 23, 24, 7:19 PM UTCJan 2, 45, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Barack Obama be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill a human die on the moon before a human walks on mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Open until either event happens
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-the-moo
- See: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-orbit-or-walk-o
- Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 50% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2045.
- How is Will Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Open until either event happens