Current community forecast
No 67.3%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 14, 26, 5:36 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if, between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, any frontier LLM provider (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, X, Apple, IBM, Microsoft, Meta, Qwen, Deepseek, ZAI, Moonshot, or Mistral) explicitly markets or releases a model specifically optimized for aesthetic judgment, "taste," or artistic evaluation.
- The announcement or release must explicitly frame the model's primary differentiator or capability as evaluating or producing work based on aesthetic standards rather than just general quality or technical correctness.
- Resolution will be determined by official company announcements, press releases, or documentation from the provider.
- If the term "taste" or "aesthetic judgment" is not explicitly used, the market will resolve to "NO." Ambiguous marketing that does not clearly distinguish a model as specifically optimized for "taste" will resolve "NO."
- "Frontier LLM" generally refers to large-scale, highly capable models at the cutting edge of AI development.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+56.5pt74.1%
- September 23+6.8pt10.2%
- September 24+0.9pt5.6%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $311.3K
- 24h Vol
- $224.5K
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-3.0pt28%
- Mark Carney20%
- Donald Trump-1.0pt10%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.1M
- 24h Vol
- $120.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.7%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8M
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $97.5K
- 24h Vol
- $74.8K
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 67.3% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026? resolve?
- Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria