Current community forecast
Yes 95.7%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleNov 18, 25, 8:23 PM UTCNov 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketOpus 5.2 released in September?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.
- Alternatively, if 2 or more of these 3 frontier labs require the mobile app user to keep the app open while the model is reasoning about an answer, or else it won't complete, then this market resolves NO.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+56.5pt74.1%
- September 23+6.8pt10.2%
- September 24+0.9pt5.6%
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $311.3K
- 24h Vol
- $224.5K
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-3.0pt28%
- Mark Carney20%
- Donald Trump-1.0pt10%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.1M
- 24h Vol
- $120.4K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt69.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.7%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.8M
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $97.5K
- 24h Vol
- $74.8K
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 95.7% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? resolve?
- Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 30, 2026.
- How is Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.