Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 77.6%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 13, 23, 9:55 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Call Of Duty still exist as a franchise by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Liechtenstein continue to exist as an independent state in 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Google AI studio still exist as a product offering in 3 years?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Will Anthropic still exist as an independent company in 2030? This resolves as NO if Anthropic is acquired by another company or folds by 2030.
- It resolves YES if Anthropic has not been acquired and is still in existence by 2030 with a Board of Directors that is independent, or is Public without getting bought out.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $154.3K
- 24h Vol
- $116.6K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.5M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $374.6K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.0pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030? resolve?
- Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2030.
- How is Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will Anthropic still exist as an independent company in 2030? This resolves as NO if Anthropic is acquired by another company or folds by 2030.