Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (99%)
Resolved: Oct 10, 2026, 6:34 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 10, 2026, 5:00 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Won
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Anthropic release Claude 6?
KalshiWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Anthropic publicly releases a new Claude Fable model with version 5.2 or higher (e.g. Fable 5.2, 5.5, 6) on October 9, 2026, Pacific Time (00:00–23:59 PT).
- Resolves NO otherwise, including if it was already released before October 9 PT.
- Counts as a release:
- - Anthropic officially announces it AND it is usable that day through at least one official channel: claude.ai / Claude apps (paid-only is fine), Claude Code, or the Claude API.
- - Staged rollouts count if at least some ordinary paying customers can select or call it by name on October 9 PT.
- - Country restrictions are fine if it is publicly available in at least one country.