Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.6%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 27, 23, 4:27 PM UTCDec 31, 50, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an official mugshot of Anthony Fauci be published before his death?
Manifold MarketsWill an official mugshot of Nancy Pelosi be published before her death?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket2028 Republican presidential nominee
KalshiRules
This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com.
- They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
- I will not be trading in those markets.
- If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
- [image]Mugshot series: @/CodeandSolder/will-an-official-mugshot-of-george @/CodeandSolder/will-an-official-mugshot-of-anthony @/CodeandSolder/will-an-official-mugshot-of-joe-bid @/CodeandSolder/will-an-official-mugshot-of-hillary @/CodeandSolder/will-an-official-mugshot-of-nancy-p @/CodeandSolder/will-an-official-mugshot-of-mike-pe
- @/CodeandSolder/will-an-official-mugshot-of-any-cur
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $805.6K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance-1.0pt44.1%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $290.1K
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an official mugshot of Mike Pence be published before his death??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an official mugshot of Mike Pence be published before his death? resolve?
- Will an official mugshot of Mike Pence be published before his death? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2050.
- How is Will an official mugshot of Mike Pence be published before his death? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com.