Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No AI-generated movie will hit the Top 10 in 2026 92.8%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
9
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 6:29 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official "Top 10" lists published by Netflix at top10.netflix.com.
- A movie will be considered "AI-generated" if it is primarily marketed as such or if reputable industry reporting (e.g., Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline) confirms that the film's core visuals, script, or animation were produced predominantly by generative AI tools.
- Yes, in Q1 2026: Resolves to this option if such a film reaches the Top 10 between January 1, 2026, and March 31, 2026.
- the named outcome: Resolves to this option if such a film reaches the Top 10 between April 1, 2026, and June 30, 2026.
- the named outcome: Resolves to this option if such a film reaches the Top 10 between July 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No AI-generated movie will hit the Top 10 in 2026 at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026? resolve?
- Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will an AI-generated movie hit Netflix Top 10 in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria