Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
No AI-generated movie will hit the Top 10 in 2026 93.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
No AI-generated movie will hit the Top 10 in 2026 93.2%Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 6:29 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many views will the #1 Movie on Netflix have this week?
KalshiWill an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a high-quality AI generated movie by the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill I (robm) agree with the resolution to the 2028 AI generated movie market?
Manifold MarketsIn which year will an AI-generated movie become the first major box office success?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on the official "Top 10" lists published by Netflix at top10.netflix.com.
- A movie will be considered "AI-generated" if it is primarily marketed as such or if reputable industry reporting (e.g., Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Deadline) confirms that the film's core visuals, script, or animation were produced predominantly by generative AI tools.
- Yes, in Q1 2026: Resolves to this option if such a film reaches the Top 10 between January 1, 2026, and March 31, 2026.
- the named outcome: Resolves to this option if such a film reaches the Top 10 between April 1, 2026, and June 30, 2026.
- the named outcome: Resolves to this option if such a film reaches the Top 10 between July 1, 2026, and September 30, 2026.
