Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
105
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleFeb 9, 23, 3:48 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:01 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we have a [decent] end to end AI generated anime series by the end of 2029?
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Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRules
Market resolves to YES if:
- At least one movie with footage that is entirely generated by a text-to-video AI is nominated for an Oscar before 2030.
- Everything else can be done by humans, including music score, script-writing, dialogue and editing, provided all of the original footage is AI-generated.
- The movie can be nominated in any category.
- Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:01 am
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030? resolve?
- Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will an AI-generated movie be nominated for an Oscar before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Market resolves to YES if: