Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 2:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 83.2%
Forecasters
105
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleFeb 9, 23, 3:48 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 10:01 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiRules
Market resolves to YES if:
- At least one movie with footage that is entirely generated by a text-to-video AI is nominated for an Oscar before 2030.
- Everything else can be done by humans, including music score, script-writing, dialogue and editing, provided all of the original footage is AI-generated.
- The movie can be nominated in any category.
- Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:01 am