Will an AI winter happen by 2030?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will an AI winter happen by 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 76.7% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Will an AI winter happen by 2030? resolve?

Will an AI winter happen by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.

How is Will an AI winter happen by 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolved according to this post, which inspired it: AI winter is operationalised as a drawdown in annual global AI investment of ≥50%.

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POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T-3.7pt92%
• ↑$1.75T85%
• ↑$2.0T-1.5pt71%

+11 more outcomes

Total Vol

$6.4M

24h Vol

$144.6K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini+1.7pt56.2%
• Claude+1.2pt36.2%
• ChatGPT-0.6pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T30%
• $1.5–$1.75T+5.5pt23%
• $2.0–$2.25T-2.3pt19%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31-1.1pt92%
• November 30-10.5pt80%
• November 19-3.5pt72%

+27 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX+0.5pt53.1%
• Anthropic-4.1pt46.9%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

• 1.5T+-2.3pt37%
• No IPO by December 31, 2027-1.6pt21%
• 1.25T–1.5T+1.0pt12%

+4 more outcomes

• Which company has the best AI model end of October?
• Anthropic IPO by which date?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Google market share this week
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Anthropic IPO Date
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?