Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 76.7%
Forecasters
128
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 40 minutes ago
Mar 27, 23, 10:16 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolved according to this post, which inspired it: AI winter is operationalised as a drawdown in annual global AI investment of ≥50%.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI winter happen by 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will an AI winter happen by 2030? resolve?
- Will an AI winter happen by 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will an AI winter happen by 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolved according to this post, which inspired it: AI winter is operationalised as a drawdown in annual global AI investment of ≥50%.