If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it??

Manifold Markets prices Legislation/treaties at 37.3% as of October 31, 2026.

When does If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it? resolve?

If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.

How is If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Multiple choice.

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POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Google-5.5pt53.5%
• Anthropic+5.5pt38.4%
• OpenAI+0.1pt6.1%

+12 more outcomes

Total Vol

$3.6M

24h Vol

$163.4K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Gemini-3.5pt52.3%
• Claude+2.9pt37.4%
• ChatGPT7.4%

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.5pt31.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.6pt19.4%
• $1.5–$1.75T-4.0pt18.4%

+7 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+3.0pt92%
• ↑$1.75T+1.5pt82%
• ↑$2.0T+4.5pt70%

+11 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,-6.6pt85%
• December 15,-6.5pt83%
• November 30,-2.5pt81%

+15 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

• SpaceX+5.5pt57.6%
• Anthropic-4.3pt42.4%
• ByteDance0%

+9 more outcomes

• When will Gemini Carbon be released?
• Anthropic IPO Date
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Best AI this week
• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
• Gemini Carbon released by which date?
• Gemini Carbon released on?
• Anthropic market share this week
• Google market share this week
• OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap