Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?
AIOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72%
Forecasters
66
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleJun 19, 22, 2:06 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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ForecastExRules
Market resolved if someone shows me a "Winds of Winter" novel attempt, written by an AI that has cleared read or understands the other books, that I like
- Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has extended the market close date to 2027 (instead of resolving N/A due to no submissions by the original deadline).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing? resolve?
- Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Market resolved if someone shows me a "Winds of Winter" novel attempt, written by an AI that has cleared read or understands the other books, that I like