Will an AI system write a high quality "Winds of Winter" novel before George RR Martin publishes the actual thing?
AIOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 8:13 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 72%
Forecasters
66
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleJun 19, 22, 2:06 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 7:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Market resolved if someone shows me a "Winds of Winter" novel attempt, written by an AI that has cleared read or understands the other books, that I like
- Update 2026-01-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has extended the market close date to 2027 (instead of resolving N/A due to no submissions by the original deadline).