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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Entertainment
  3. Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

0.5% (24h)EntertainmentYearly6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 11%+0.0%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$105.6

Liquidity

$2.9K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

9.0% / 13.0%

Spread

44.4%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 2 minutes ago

Jan 16, 26, 12:33 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes11%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R.

Polymarket
  • Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution.
  • The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify.
  • This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R.

Polymarket
  • Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released.
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution.
  • The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify.
  • This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.