PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 93%+0.1pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$2.1K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
4.5% / 9.6%
Spread
5.1 pt
Wide spreadComments
15
7d Change
+0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 16, 26, 12:33 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
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Kalshi"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution.
- The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify.
- This market is concerned only with the announcement of release.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
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- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
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- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? resolve?
- Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released.