What are the current odds for Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 76% as of September 8, 2026.

Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter?

One-OffEntertainment3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 76.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Stale

Jun 21, 25, 5:46 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:44 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Any one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026

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Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

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Winds of Winter released before 2027?

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Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?

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Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

Polymarket

Rules

This market resolves YES if I'm able to play Valve's Half Life 3 before I'm able to read GRRM's The Winds of Winter.

Half life 3 counts even if it's given a different name, such as "Half life infinite" etc. Same for Winds of Winter, if GRRM changes the name, it still counts.

Report a data issue with this market

Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter?

One-OffEntertainment3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 76.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 9 hours ago

Stale

Jun 21, 25, 5:46 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:44 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Any one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026

Manifold Markets

The Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?

Kalshi

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

Polymarket

Winds of Winter released before 2027?

Manifold Markets

Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?

Manifold Markets

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

Polymarket

Rules

This market resolves YES if I'm able to play Valve's Half Life 3 before I'm able to read GRRM's The Winds of Winter.

Half life 3 counts even if it's given a different name, such as "Half life infinite" etc. Same for Winds of Winter, if GRRM changes the name, it still counts.

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter? resolve?: Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
How is Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if I'm able to play Valve's Half Life 3 before I'm able to read GRRM's The Winds of Winter.

Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter?

Will half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter?

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