PolymarketClosedCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 24M+
Resolved: Oct 26, 2026, 11:52 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
24M+
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
10%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
21-22.5M1%
24M+100%
22.5-24M69%
24M+Won
19.5-21MLost
21-22.5MLost
22.5-24MLost
<19.5MLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
"The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping" Opening Weekend Box Office
PolymarketWill Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?
PolymarketWhich movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?
Manifold MarketsWill "Dunesday" (Dune 3 and Avengers: Doomsday) outgross Barbenheimer (Barbie and Oppenheimer) on it's opening weekend?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the movie with the greatest opening weekend in the US in 2026? (FSS)
Manifold Markets"Avengers: Doomsday" breaks the record for the biggest opening weekend of all time?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to how much "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend.
- The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (October 23 - 25) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
- If there is no final data available by October 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
