Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 99.2%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 21, 25, 1:08 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
The Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketWill half life 3 release before The Winds of Winter?
Manifold MarketsWhich will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?
Manifold MarketsAny one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R.R. Martin's novel The Winds of Winter is officially published on or before December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve to "No" if the novel is not published by that date.
- Official publication is defined as the book being made available for purchase by the general public in any format (print, digital, or audio) through recognized retailers or platforms.
- The Winds of Winter is the anticipated sixth installment in George R.R. Martin's epic fantasy series, A Song of Ice and Fire.
- The previous book, A Dance with Dragons, was released in 2011.