Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
One-OffEntertainmentSpace4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 3:24 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 79.9%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleDec 3, 23, 9:10 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will the Winds of Winter be released
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on Mars before a human returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhen will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if the next A Song of Ice and Fire book, The Winds of Winter, is released before the next human sets foot on the Moon.