Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 62.7%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 3, 23, 9:11 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill P vs NP be resolved after man lands on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Winds of Winter be released?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketNASA lands on the moon?
KalshiRules
Resolves YES if the next A Song of Ice and Fire book, The Winds of Winter, is released before the first human sets foot on Mars.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
- Big Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- Steam: Weekly Top Seller
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- #2 US Spotify Song 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars? resolve?
- Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
- How is Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity lands on Mars? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the next A Song of Ice and Fire book, The Winds of Winter, is released before the first human sets foot on Mars.