Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2030 or later 51.8%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 25, 8:22 AM UTCDec 30, 30, 9:19 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "The Winds of Winter" be released before humanity returns to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWhen will "The Winds of Winter" (A song of Ice and Fire) by George R.R. Martin be published?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next game of thrones book by GRR Martin - "winds of winter", be released?
Manifold MarketsThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiWill George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
PolymarketWill Netflix Studios Fort Monmouth Phase 1B be completed before winter 2028?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the official release date of "The Winds of Winter," the sixth novel in George R.R. Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire" series.
- The release date will be determined based on announcements from reputable sources such as the author's official blog, publisher statements, or major news outlets.
- The date will correspond to the first official publication of the book in any format (e.g., hardcover, paperback, e-book) in any country.
- As of May 2025, "The Winds of Winter" remains unpublished.
- George R.R. Martin has been working on the novel since at least 2010, following the release of "A Dance with Dragons" in 2011.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $398.4K
- 24h Vol
- $106K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
- $105.5K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will the Winds of Winter be released?
- Manifold Markets prices 2030 or later at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will the Winds of Winter be released resolve?
- When will the Winds of Winter be released is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2030.
- How is When will the Winds of Winter be released settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria