Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?
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Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
The Winds of Winter 69.9%
The Winds of Winter 69.9%Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 24, 6:07 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which book will be released first; between "winds of winter", "Doors of Stone", and "Thorn of Emberlain"?
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Manifold MarketsAny one of Half Life 3, the Winds of Winter, or Elder Scrolls 6 announced before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolved upon release.
- In the event the book's name is changed, the next novel-length sequel in either series will win.
- (For example, if Rothfuss releases a surprise KC prequel that is not functionally the third book in his projected trilogy, that would not resolve YES--but if he just renames the third book "I hate writing here's the book give me my money and go away," that would resolve YES.)