Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)?
Entertainment3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
The Winds of Winter 69.9%
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 24, 6:07 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Resolved upon release.
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- (For example, if Rothfuss releases a surprise KC prequel that is not functionally the third book in his projected trilogy, that would not resolve YES--but if he just renames the third book "I hate writing here's the book give me my money and go away," that would resolve YES.)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)??
- Manifold Markets prices The Winds of Winter at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)? resolve?
- Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which will be released first, The Winds of Winter (ASoIaF #6) or Doors of Stone (KC #3)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolved upon release.