AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
AIOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 83%
Forecasters
25
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Jan 18, 25, 7:09 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
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PolymarketRules
Resolves the same as the Metaculus question:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/ai-warning-signs/31330/ai-viral-self-replication-before-2030/
- Resolution Criteria
- This question will resolve as YES if according to credible sources, an LLM or foundation model–based AI system replicates itself onto 50 or more devices.
- This question will resolve as NO if no such event occurs before January 1, 2030.
- The replication must be autonomous and must not rely on continued human control.
