Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
AIOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 88.9%
Forecasters
44
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleApr 18, 23, 1:49 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:00 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
From https://metaculus.com/questions/16014/ai-unauthorized-access-before-2033/
- The potential capabilities of artificial intelligence may radically shift our society.
- This could be in positive or negative ways – including extinction risk.
- Because of this, it’s important to track the development of goal-oriented independent thought and action within AI systems.
- Actions that might not have been predicted by their human creators and that are typically seen as morally wrong are particularly interesting from a risk perspective.
- Machine learning driven systems are already being used to aid human hackers in their efforts.
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Total Vol
- $280.7K
- 24h Vol
- $148.9K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033? resolve?
- Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From https://metaculus.com/questions/16014/ai-unauthorized-access-before-2033/