Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 2:41 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 85.8%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 minutes ago
Mar 28, 26, 4:16 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if a book appears on any New York Times bestseller list (fiction, nonfiction, or any subcategory) where an AI system is credited as the primary author, by December 31, 2028.
- What counts:
- The book must appear on the official NYT bestseller list (nytimes.com/books/best-sellers)
- The AI must be credited as author or primary co-author on the cover/title page
- Ghost-written by AI but credited to a human does NOT count
- A human editor/collaborator is fine as long as AI is credited as author
