Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 93.4%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 7, 25, 12:50 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) is a benchmark designed to evaluate Al systems' reasoning and problem-solving capabilities across a wide range of academic disciplines, including mathematics, humanities, and natural sciences.
- Developed collaboratively by the Center for Al Safety and Scale Al, HLE comprises 3,000 unambiguous and verifiable academic questions contributed by nearly 1,000 subject-matter experts from over 500 institutions across 50 countries.
- The dataset is multimodal, with approximately 10% of the questions requiring both image and text comprehension, while the remaining 90% are text-based.
- As of early 2025, state-of-the-art Al models have demonstrated limited success on the HLE benchmark.
- For instance, OpenAl's 03-mini (high) model achieved an accuracy of 13% when evaluated solely on text-based questions.
- OpenAl's Deep Research agent, which leverages the 03 model for extensive web browsing and data analysis, reached an accuracy of 26.6% on the HLE benchmark.
Open markets
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 93% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027? resolve?
- Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Al achieve 95% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) is a benchmark designed to evaluate Al systems' reasoning and problem-solving capabilities across a wide range of academic disciplines, including mathematics, humanities, and natural sciences.