Current community forecast
Will not cause extinction 78.8%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
39
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 13, 23, 4:26 PM UTCJan 1, 01, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Please answer as you would for the question "will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100".
- If your answer is "no", choose "the named outcome"
- If your answer is "yes", please try to identify which of the following scenarios will be the "main" cause for human extinction:
- Foom: rapidly self-improving AI destroys humanity as a result of pursuing some misaligned goal
- Terminator: AI blatantly disregards human instructions and pursues its own goals.
- Alignment Failure: AI appears superficially good but causes extinction due to a subtly mis-stated goal.