Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.8%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 2:28 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if the following statement is true:
- For a typical nontrivial open mathematical conjecture stated within the standard axioms of mathematics, the probability that a publicly available AI system solves the conjecture autonomously within a fixed time horizon is greater than the probability that a human mathematician solves it within the same time horizon without assistance from AI.
- Resolution will be based on my judgment.
- I am a PhD student in mathematics.
- I will not place any bets in this market, as the resolution depends on my own judgment.
- Clarifications
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if the following statement is true: