Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2028 20.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleNov 22, 25, 8:48 PM UTCNov 22, 30, 8:46 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI be better every human at proving Math theorems by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill xAI release a game made entirely with AI that is better made than the best made Roblox game in the next 5 yrs?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolve when someone demonstrates that a very hard-to-recognize image recognition CAPTCHA (one that humans can barely recognize) can nevertheless be consistently recognized by a freely available LLM.
- Update 2025-11-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve when AI can solve any image recognition CAPTCHA better than humans, where "very hard to recognize" means designed to be hard for machines to recognize (not just arbitrary tasks that happen to be easier for LLMs than humans).
Open markets
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.0pt56.5%
- 2027+3.5pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Total Vol
- $261.2K
- 24h Vol
- $186.6K
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $401K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.4pt62.4%
- ChatGPT-1.2pt23.8%
- Grok-2.6pt5.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-8.0pt63%
- 1490+-8.5pt54%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human?
- Manifold Markets prices 2028 at 20% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human resolve?
- When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human is scheduled to resolve on November 22, 2030.
- How is When will AI be better at Captcha than an average human settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolve when someone demonstrates that a very hard-to-recognize image recognition CAPTCHA (one that humans can barely recognize) can nevertheless be consistently recognized by a freely available LLM.