Current community forecast
Yes 67%
Forecasters
79
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleMay 31, 24, 11:13 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
AGI is achieved when this market resolves and AIs can smell when there is a commercially available device that can differentiate different smells similar to humans (resolution criteria is still being refined)
Open markets
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- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 more outcomes
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- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
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+3 more outcomes
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+9 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $406.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 67% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? resolve?
- Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will AGI be achieved before AIs are able to smell? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: AGI is achieved when this market resolves and AIs can smell when there is a commercially available device that can differentiate different smells similar to humans (resolution criteria is still being refined)